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How Are Football Odds Calculated

Author:Football Prediction SiteJan 05, 2022, 09:53:13Read times
Description1. The European odds are the odds for the three outcomes of winning, tie and loss. This is also the most intuitive difference from the Asian market. It can directly indicate the probability of the three results in a numerical situation, whi
1. The European odds are the odds for the three outcomes of winning, tie and loss. This is also the most intuitive difference from the Asian market. It can directly indicate the probability of the three results in a numerical situation, while the Asian market is very Obviously this cannot be done.
 
2. We know that the above two sets of odds are converted to Asian handicap, both of which are hemispherical handicap for the guest. The only difference is the level of water. In a theoretical sense, the result we can judge from the Asian game is that the probability of the visiting team winning and the probability of losing the visiting team adding up are basically equal. We can't tell from the hemispherical how the bookmaker's attitude towards the away team is a tie or a loss. But the European game explained the probability of each result very intuitively. Obviously, there is a relatively large odds gap between Bremen and Lyon's draw and defeat. Let's eliminate the psychological factor first, which can roughly explain the tendency of the Boce company, which is also a hemisphere, but if the visiting team loses, the probability of a draw in Lyon compared to Bremen is greater than a failure. This is also the reason why many people think that the European game is far more important to football lottery than the Asian game.
 
3. Since the day the football lottery started, more and more people have joined the team studying European odds, but as far as my superficial understanding of European odds is concerned, I think many people have fallen into a misunderstanding. In my last post, I have already talked about opposing law as a direction for studying odds. Now, I want to re-emphasize this point again in a clear-cut manner, and judge the specific by counting the results of the same odds. Games, is this still called "research" odds? If the results can be judged in such a simple way, then the Bocai company that made a living on it would not survive to this day. Especially the storage and computing power of modern computers can easily calculate the appearance of the same odds in several years or even decades in a few seconds. By the same token, any statistics based on half-time odds, over/under odds, score odds and other statistics are meaningless. If you stick to this direction, it only means that you have too underestimated the IQ of the Bocai company personnel. For example, the odds of 1.25, 3.75 and 8.0, after nearly half a year of statistics, it turns out that the home team lost 1. So excited, I thought that I found a super unpopular odds. Calm down, and then counted it for five years and found that it was With 14 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, I was a bit uncomfortable. Checking the statistics for ten years, the result is 24 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, which is in full compliance with the reciprocal probability.
 
4. The more games counted in any set of odds, the closer to its corresponding reciprocal probability; the fewer games, the greater the chance. Since the contingency is great, what is the reference? Even if you really insist on referencing, it should be a reverse thinking. The above odds are still 1.25 3.75 8.0. When short-term statistics find that only one odds of negative 8.0 is played, it should be considered based on the probability corresponding to this set of odds. , The possibility of being unpopular in the short term is very, very small. I think this is the normal way of thinking. Rather than mechanically believing that this odds once appeared unpopular, then it might be unpopular next time. This kind of thinking is somewhat naive.
 
5. There are a lot of European Pocai companies that we can find at present, including many small companies' odds, which can be easily seen on the Internet. Each lottery company has its own different odds system, which is related to the country of their user base and the psychology of betting. As a reference for football lottery, everyone has different choices, but it is certainly unrealistic to study the odds of all companies. I personally prefer 5+1, which is William Hill + Lipo+SSP+BET365+interwetten+European average odds (English Premier League); SNAI+Lipo+William Hill+SSP+interwetten+European average odds (Serie A).
 
6. William Hill, has always been the leader in the wave mining industry, its company strength is certainly one aspect, but in my opinion, the status of the leader lies in the stability and accuracy of its odds system. Many small and medium-sized companies decide their initial payouts based on William's odds. For games that they are not sure about, it is the best choice to follow William's pace. This even includes the standard plate of Macau Bocay Company. Of course, Macau has developed into an independent judgement company in the later period, but we can still see the traces of William's odds in many games.
 
7. William and Libo, because they are in the same country, that is, the user group is basically the same, leading to inevitable competition between them, that is, competition to attract customers. This also makes the two odds for the same game not consistent in most games, even a slight difference must be made. This does not mean that they have different attitudes towards the game, unless it is a game with a relatively large difference in odds, we need to conduct further research. But it should be noted that when the odds of the two companies are exactly the same (very few games), then you should pay attention instead. As mentioned earlier, William is a company with stable odds and very little change. When he makes changes to a certain game, it is worth our research and observation. To give a more recent example, it is still the 05046 Cologne VS Bremen mentioned above. William’s initial payout was 4.00 3.00 1.83, and Libo was 3.75 3.25 1.80. On the 9th, William took the lead in changing the payout and adjusted it. It is 4.50 3.10 1.72, which increases main wins and tie pays, and reduces negative pays. Libo did not dare to neglect, and adjusted to 4.33 3.20 1.73. William's tendency that it is difficult to play the main victory is evident in this adjustment, and Libo's substantial follow-up also shows that he fully agrees with William's view. Further verification by the SSP variable compensation shows that Bremen’s victory has been favored by several mainstream companies on the 9th, and the main victory may be very, very small, and a draw cannot be completely ruled out.
 
8. Interwetten, when you see this company, just remember one thing, this is a Bocai company whose first goal is to control risks. In other words, this is a big company with very little courage. This company, like William, is a must-see for me every time, because his strategy of controlling risks makes the intention very obvious in certain games. In the 04046 period, Barça VS Severi’s ball, when William’s initial loss was a bit too high, my first impression was 30. But on the 11th, when Interwetten changed its compensation, this single 3 was already ready. why? Let's take a look at the adjustment of Interwetten, the initial loss was 1.35 4.0 7.0, and on the 11th it was adjusted to 1.35 4.20 7.50. In the case of the same win and loss, he increased the tie and loss, which means that he will increase the return rate in this game. As mentioned earlier, this is a company whose primary goal is to control risks. When it increases the return rate, it basically shows that it is very confident in this game.
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