Can Alexa Give Football Scores
DescriptionThe European Cup final is coming soon. This European Cup is all about own goals and upsets. So all kinds of rooftop stalks inevitably appeared on the Internet. Someone will tell you very well: football games are now rigged and the water is
The European Cup final is coming soon. This European Cup is all about own goals and upsets. So all kinds of "rooftop" stalks inevitably appeared on the Internet. Someone will tell you very well: football games are now rigged and the water is deep . It is also derived that the team cooperates with the "handicap" to play. The socalled handicap refers to the odds offered by some foreign bookmakers for the outcome of a game. What's more, they will tell you mysteriously that by analyzing the line, you can see what the outcome of the next game will be.
good guy! The wealth code is in your hands.
So how exactly do bookmakers rig the game so that they can make a lot of money?
Hey, don't worry! I mean don't know if and how they rigged the game. But if I were to start a company like this, I would have a way to put all your money into my pocket .
Because to do this there is no need to rig the game at all , just one thing, and that is:
Suppose now that there is a game between teams A and B. A Wang said that he felt that Team A was going to win and was willing to bet 100 coins for it ; A Miao said that he felt that Team B was going to win and was willing to bet 100 coins . I said yes, I will give you a testimony, you put all the coins here, and in the end whoever is right, I will give all the coins to whoever . However, I have to take 10 of all coins, which is 5% of the coins , for my hard work. That is, the winner can end up taking 190 coins .
Now the question arises: Who is most likely to fix the game?
Both Ah Wang and Ah Miao have motives, but it can't be me . Because no matter who wins or loses, I'm guaranteed 10 coins. So do I have nothing to do when I am full, or do I have a deep hatred with someone, and would rather hide from the sky and steal from the sky just to transfer one person's money to another person?
Someone is going to say that the example you gave is wrong. How much money the winner can take away is set by the bookmaker, so they will lose small and win big!
This causal logic is reversed!
The existence of different odds is not determined by the bookmaker or bookmaker, but by the bettor.
In the same example just now, Ah Wang still bet 100 coins to support team A to win; on team B , in addition to A Miao who bet 100 coins , Abaa also bet 100 coins . At this time, I still take 5% from it, and now it is 15. If team A wins, Ah Wang can get 285 coins , so the odds of betting on team A are (30010)/100= 2.85 ; and team B wins, Ah Miao and Ah Wang can take 142.5 coins each. coins , so the odds of betting on team B are (30010)/2/100= 1.425 .
As the bookmaker, I could of course set the odds lower, say 2.5 for team A and 1.2 for team B, so that I could make more money. But the three classmates are not stupid. They calculated, no, no matter who wins, I still have some coins in my possession, and they will not come to me for notarization in the future. So I don't even have the 5% that I originally earned.
In the existing general gambling rules, the bookmaker needs to give clear odds in advance before others bet. This requires bookmakers to offer odds that ensure that no matter who wins, they will make money, and that the odds are as high as possible to attract people to bet.
To do this, you need to do two things:

Give an initial odds as accurate as possible

Dynamically adjust odds based on betting situation
For example, for the final of this European Cup, a website gave:
Win 2.50  Draw 3.10  Lose 2.88
It can be found by calculation that its expected draw is:
I used a program to simulate the betting process of a game to see if it was really possible to make sure that I could make a profit just by adjusting the odds. In order to simplify the model, here only consider the two cases of team A winning and team B winning, there is no draw .
Suppose the initial estimated odds are 50% each , and the bettors' preference is 80% for A and 20% for B.
My dynamic adjustment strategy is to calculate new odds according to the method mentioned above based on the selection of the last 1000 bettors . Of course, I will still take 5% from it .
When there are 100,000 bets , the result I get is this:
The red curve is the total amount of bets I received;
The blue curve is the bonus that I need to pay according to the odds of each bettor after team A wins;
The green curve is the bonus paid after team B wins;
The yellow dotted line and the cyan dotted line are the realtime odds of the AB teams respectively.
It can be clearly seen that, except for a short and slight loss at the beginning because the initial odds were set too arbitrarily, in the following time, I was guaranteed to make no losses .
Someone has to say again, your situation is too ideal, and the distribution of audience betting will not be so stable!
OK, it doesn't matter, we continue to simulate.
Now suppose that for every 10,000 bets, everyone is more optimistic about team B , and the betting preference of team A will decrease by 10% on the existing basis . Other conditions and policies remain unchanged. We will get this result:
From the beginning of the betting to the end, although the fans' optimism on the AB team has completely reversed, this still does not affect the stability of my money .
Going a step further, I set a 1 in 10,000 chance of a random collective big swing in fan betting preferences during the betting period , meaning that the bookmaker has absolutely no way of predicting the outcome of the game.
Even in this bizarre situation, my income is still as stable as an old dog!
In order to be more convincing, the same rule is repeated 100 times , and the number of bets is incremented from 10,000 to 110,000 , and the income ratio is drawn:
Did you see it, but no matter how many people come, the income can always be maintained at around 5% , which is the percentage I preset, and the more people there are, the closer to this ratio. This is the embodiment of the law of large numbers in probability, that is, the more repetitions, the closer the actual frequency of occurrence is to the theoretical probability .
Now, does anyone still think I need to manipulate a team to win? is it necessary?
All I want is a lot of people betting, the more the better . I don't care which team is in better shape, the weather is better, the love life of the main players is more stable, and even the initial odds don't matter. The only thing that matters is the realtime situation of the bet . I adjust the odds not to trap you on the roof, but precisely to make the bettors of different parties more balanced, so as to avoid the situation of winning small and losing big or winning big and losing small.
So, it's not me who decides the odds, but the wow wow wow wow wow wow baa who bet on me. I don't need to do anything, as long as you insist on betting, it is inevitable to lose your wife's capital.
If you don't believe me, let's look at another simulation:
Assuming that the prematch predicted winning rate of all games is reasonable , for example, the predicted winning rate of team A is 80%, then it is actually 80% likely to win. On this basis, Ah Wang came with a coin of 1 w . Every game, he bets 1,000 coins , or 1/10 of the initial total. If this continues, what will be the result?
I simulated 100 times and this is the curve of the number of coins . Although there are many times, 10,000 coins will win 20,000 to 30,000 or more, but in most cases, the number of coins will return to zero when it is less than 100 times . And stretched to 1000 times, it is almost impossible to escape.
If Ah Wang is obsessed, continue to borrow money to participate:
It can be seen that due to the existence of the dealer's rake, the overall curve of the number of coins is constantly decreasing .
And if Ah Wang is still very aggressive and goes Allin at every turn, then this process can be greatly accelerated:
Basically, two or three times will be lost . If you are lucky, you can last a few more times, but the final outcome is always the same.
This experiment tells us:
In a zerosum game, as the doomed underdog, the best strategy is not to play at all , so that mathematical expectations are maximized.
Big gambling hurts the body, long gambling will lose, gambling to the end, nothing!
To get the simulation experiment code in the text, please reply to the keyword in the programming classroom of the public account Crossin
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