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2018 World Cup opener: Russia successfully scored three points?
The history of the 2018 World Cup opener, forward-looking analysis, betting strategy...
The 2018 World Cup is about to start. Every time around the World Cup, there are many interesting topics and betting points. Today we will talk about the opener from the perspective of historical data , grouping situation and odds support .
The origin of the opener>
The concept of the so-called opener, that is, the first match of each World Cup. In fact, in the early days of the World Cup, there were no rules for the host to play in the opener, or even the concept of an opener. In the first World Cup in 1930, the first match was played between France and Mexico. In the 1934 World Cup, Italy became the host for the first World Cup. From 1974 to 2002, eight consecutive World Cups were played by the defending champions.
After the 2002 World Cup in Korea and Japan, the competition system was reformed (France has a pot here...), FIFA stipulates that only the host country can not participate in the qualifiers for each cup in the future, and other participating teams must pass the qualifiers to qualify for the World Cup. . In this way, the defending champions also need to participate in the qualifiers, which means that they may miss the World Cup main match, so they changed to the host to play the opener.
There is one statistic. In the previous 20 World Cups, the first round of the host team, whether it was the opening game or not, remained undefeated, with a record of 15 wins and 6 draws (the two hosts of the World Cup in Korea and Japan), of which 9 were opened with the participation of the hosts. The record is 6 wins and 3 draws. The last three host teams participated in the opener (host first): Germany 4:2 Costa Rica in 2006, South Africa 1:1 Mexico in 2010, Brazil 3:1 Croatia in 2014. In these three games, the dominant hosts Germany and Brazil have all won big, and even the host South Africa, which is not as strong as their opponents, also won a draw.
The host's unbeaten opening game is not only due to strength, but also due to the schedule, referees, groups and other reasons. The hosts can often be taken care of in terms of grouping and refereeing and law enforcement. How is the situation in Russia this year?
Judging from the grouping situation, Uruguay in South America, Egypt in Africa, and Saudi Arabia in Asia are also in Group A with Russia. Needless to say, Uruguay has the strongest group on the card, and this opponent is the winner of the second-tier teams previously divided; the "big-headed baby" Egypt picked from the third gear, and the "Asian" picked from the fourth gear. The weakest" Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly on the sign. Why do you say this? Please continue to read below:
According to the rules, in the group stage of the World Cup, each group can qualify for two teams and enter the knockout stage. As a host with medium strength in the world and weak in Europe, Russia, a medium horse, wants to advance, and its strategy is definitely not to outperform the top horse Uruguay, but to throw away two middle and low horses. The third block avoids many European powerhouses, and Egypt, which has a superstar Salah, but a group of unknown supporting roles, is drawn; Asia Saudi Arabia, which is at the bottom of the top 32 in the fourth block, is definitely on the lottery. In this opener, choosing to play against Saudi Arabia, the weakest in the group, is undoubtedly the best choice for the first easy and then the difficult, and the first victory to get three points.
Judging from the 2018 World Cup winning odds offered by the current mainstream institutions, the host Russia loses 41 to one, ranking in the upper and middle position of the 32 teams (tied for 11th). And their opponents in the opening game, Saudi Arabia, lost 1001 to one, tied with Panama for the bottom of all teams. Such an opponent, isn't it the best victory for the Russians to qualify?
risk warning! ! !
After talking about the above advantages, do you have the urge to "sell your kidneys" to give it a shot? Don't worry, there are still some risks to inform:
Track record risk, the Russian team has failed to qualify for the group in the previous three World Cup experiences. This is a big negative, but there is another statistic that can be neutralized: in the previous 20 World Cups, except for South Africa in 2010, other host teams have successfully reached the knockout stage, but look at the grouping of South Africa that year, and speak your mind , Personally, I think the South African Football Association definitely did not **. Group stage opponents France, Uruguay, Mexico, if it is not for the discord in the French team, South Africa will be at the bottom without a problem, after all, the strength gap is too big. In addition, Russia ranked third in the three group matches, indicating that the team is not the worst every time, and it is only one breath away from qualifying, and this time has come!
The current situation is risky . As the host Russian team, there is no need to participate in the qualifiers. Judging from the team's recent performance in the warm-up game, it is inevitable that people will be intimidated, but this does not rule out the possibility of deliberately "making a deal" in advance.
Betting risk , according to the current official sports lottery data, the odds of winning the opening game in Russia are 1.28, and the bookmakers are mostly around 1.40. From experience, there is a large deviation between the two at present, and domestic lottery players are optimistic about the amount of betting in Russia.
Conspiracy theory risk , I am more confident in the Russian team qualifying, but there are many possibilities for the promotion route, and winning the opening game is only the greatest probability. All in all, lottery tickets are risky, bet with caution!
Based on the above, personal betting suggestions, the betting chips for Russia to win the opening match are about 30% suitable; with strategies, if there is an accident in this game, such as a draw, the next round will be against Egypt, and the blogger will win. Buying lottery needs to be done according to our ability, it is just a bonus to our participation in the World Cup, the most important thing is to appreciate high-level football matches.