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Author:Football Prediction SiteJan 12, 2022, 09:55:19Read times
DescriptionThe accompaniment rate comes from Europe. In 1790, the British Ogden first invented the accompaniment rate. In football betting, you can set different odds for the outcome of the game, and you can also set the winning accompaniment rate for
The accompaniment rate comes from Europe. In 1790, the British Ogden first invented the accompaniment rate. In football betting, you can set different odds for the outcome of the game, and you can also set the winning accompaniment rate for the league and cup games, and even set the accompaniment rate for the goal scorer and score of a game.

So how to analyze the accompaniment rate?

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  1. 1
    European odds are the odds for the three outcomes of victory, draw and loss. This is also the most intuitive difference from the Asian handicap. It can directly indicate the probability of the three outcomes in the form of numbers, while the Asian handicap obviously does less than that. for example:

     

    Cologne vs Bremen 3.41 3.26 2.00 (SSP)

     

    Etienne vs Lyon 3.94 2.99 1.94 (SSP)
    Detailed explanation of football lottery odds (how do I analyze the odds)
  2. 2
    We know that the above two sets of odds are converted into Asian handicap, and they are all handicap hemisphere handicap, the difference is only the water level. From a theoretical point of view, what we can tell from the Asian handicap is that the probability of the away team winning is basically equal to the probability that the visiting team loses and draws together. We can't tell from the hemisphere the banker's attitude towards a draw or a loss for the away team. However, the European handicap shows the probability of each outcome very intuitively. Obviously, there is a relatively large odds gap for the draw and defeat of Bremen and Lyon. Let's exclude the psychological factor first, which can roughly explain the tendency of Bocai. The same is the hemisphere. However, if the visiting team does not win, Lyon is more likely to draw than Bremen in this game. This is why many people think that the European handicap is far more important to the football lottery than the Asian handicap.
    Detailed explanation of football lottery odds (how do I analyze the odds)
  3. 3
    Since the day the football lottery started, more and more people have joined the team to study European odds, but as far as my superficial understanding of European odds is concerned, I think many people have come into a misunderstanding. In my last post, I have already talked about opposing the use of rules as a direction for studying odds. Now, I also want to emphasize this point again, and judge the specific results by counting the results of the same odds. Sessions, is this still called "research" odds? If the outcome could be judged in such a simple way, the Bocai company that made a living from it would not have survived today. In particular, the storage and computing power of modern computers can easily count the occurrence of the same odds over several years or even decades in a few seconds. In the same way, the results based on any statistics such as half-court odds, over-the-ball odds, score odds, etc. are meaningless. If you insist on this direction, it only means that you underestimate the IQ of the personnel of Bocai. For example, the odds of 1.25 3.75 8.0, after the statistics of the past six months, it will be found that the home team is 1 loss, so I am excited and think that I have found a super unpopular odds; the result is calm, and it is calculated within five years, and found that it is 14 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, which is a bit unpleasant. After checking its statistics for ten years, the result is 24 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, which fully conforms to the reciprocal probability. At this time, it is like a basin of cold water.
    Detailed explanation of football lottery odds (how do I analyze the odds)
  4. 4
    Taking this example is to illustrate that the more games that any group of odds counts, the closer it is to its corresponding reciprocal probability; the fewer the games, the greater the chance. Since the contingency is great, what is the reference significance? Even if you really insist on reference, you should think in reverse, or the above odds are 1.25 3.75 8.0. After short-term statistics, it is found that there is only one main minus 8.0 odds played, you should consider the probability corresponding to this group of odds. , the possibility of another unpopularity in the short term is very, very small. I think this is the normal way of thinking. Instead of mechanically thinking that the odds have been unpopular once, then the next time it appears, it may also be unpopular. Such an idea is a bit naive.

     

    So, after ruling out the method of finding rules, how should we correctly understand the European compensation? In my opinion, European and Asian handicap behave differently, but are essentially the same. Then, as a bettor, the first homework that must also be done is to understand the team, which is the biggest premise of betting on football lottery, whether it is Chinese football lottery or Australian handicap or European handicap. If you don't know the team itself, then you can't even study the odds. This even includes the need to understand the current situation of the team, league trends, the relationship between the opposing teams, etc. The more you know about these, the more profound the interpretation of the odds.
    Detailed explanation of football lottery odds (how do I analyze the odds)
  5. 5
    We can currently find a lot of European Pocai companies, including many small companies whose odds can be easily seen online. Every Bocai company has its own odds system, which is related to the country and betting psychology of their user base. As a reference to football lottery, everyone has different choices, but it is certainly not realistic to study the odds of all companies. I personally prefer 5+1, that is, William Hill + Libo + SSP + BET365 + interwetten + European average odds (Premier League); SNAI + Libo + William Hill + SSP + interwetten + European average odds (Serie A).
  6. 6
    William Hill has always been regarded as the leader in the wave mining industry. Of course, its company strength is one aspect, but in my opinion, the status of the leader lies in the stability and accuracy of its odds system. Many small and medium-sized companies decide their initial payouts based on the odds offered by William. For the games that they do not have an accurate grasp of, it is the best choice to follow William's pace. This even includes the standard set of Macau Bocai Company. Of course, Macau has developed into a Bocai company with independent judgment in the later stage, but we can still see traces of William's odds in many games.
  7. 7
    William and Libo, because they are in the same country, that is, the user base is basically the same, lead to inevitable competition between them, that is, the competition to attract customers. This also makes the odds of these two games for the same game not consistent in most games, and even a little difference must be made. This does not mean that they have different attitudes towards the game, unless the odds gap is relatively large, we need to do further research. But it should be noted that when the odds of these two companies are exactly the same (very few games), then you should pay attention. As mentioned earlier, William is a company whose odds are stable and rarely change. When he changes the odds for a certain game, it is worth our study and observation. To give a relatively recent example, it is still Cologne VS Bremen in the 05046 period mentioned above. William's initial loss is 4.00 3.00 1.83, and Libo is 3.75 3.25 1.80. On the 9th, William took the lead in changing the loss and adjusting It is 4.50 3.10 1.72, increasing the main win and equalization, and reducing the loss. Libo did not dare to neglect, and followed the pace to adjust to 4.33 3.20 1.73. William's tendency to be difficult to play the main victory is obvious in this adjustment, and Libo's substantial follow-up also shows that he completely agrees with William's view. Further verification by the SSP loss change shows that Bremen's victory has been favored by several mainstream companies on the 9th, and the main victory may be very, very small, and a draw cannot be completely ruled out.
  8. 8
    Well, we know that Willian's odds, due to their accuracy and stability, can serve as the cornerstone of our game judgment. But on rare occasions, even this cornerstone is shaken. Why don't we observe the direction of his shaking and analyze it? Similarly, for Serie A, SNAI is the boss, I mean his stability and immutability. In the 05045 issue, Wuji VS Lecce this game, SNAI has a great change in loss. The following is a paragraph of my post analysis before the game: "In terms of strength, Wuji is obviously higher than a grade. Judging from the odds opened by various companies, they are also in line with the strength comparison of the two sides. The main win is around 1.6. It is a balance of strength. Among them, the only thing that makes people puzzled is SNAI. Like William, this Italian local company rarely changes, but for this game, he changed from 1.6 3.4 5.5 to 1.7 3.25 4.8. Among them, the change of the main negative odds has completely deviated from the other mainstream odds above 5.5, which is a very rare change in SNAI. The changed odds have a huge gap with SSP's 1.47 3.68 6.83, which does not seem to be the same. The odds given for the match." We now know that the SNAI's odds were actually played.

     

    Let's look at SSP again. SSP is a Pocai company that only accepts cascading bets, which means that at least two games must be bundled for guessing. The company's odds system has changed a lot. In the past few years, countless research articles on SSP have appeared on the Internet, but if you have been paying attention to SSP, you will find that not two years ago, even three months ago. articles are out of date. SSP used to be a very difficult company to change. At the end of last season and the beginning of this season, the style changed dramatically, and the magnitude and frequency of changes were surprising: Is this still SSP? The direction of its compensation change is confusing, sometimes it conforms to the mainstream, and sometimes it is completely contrary to other companies, but after the analysis, it is half right and wrong. But when we began to adapt to its "crazy" state and gradually found its direction, he suddenly had a 365-degree transformation. Slave Ruotuotu has become quiet like a virgin again. In the middle and late November, SSP seems to have returned to a state where it is easy to lose money. For beginner odds, this company is best not to use it as a reference object. When he is in a "crazy" state, the initial market is often full of bewitching, which is completely inconsistent with his true intentions. It has just returned to a calm state at the moment, but it has not been a month, and the best we can do now is to observe and study him afterwards.
  9. 9
    interwetten, when looking at this company, just remember one thing, this is a wave company with risk control as the first goal. In other words, this is a big company with very little guts. Like William, this company is a must-see for me every time, because his strategy of controlling risks makes his intentions very obvious in some scenes. In the 04046 issue, Barcelona VS Seville this game, in the case of William's initial loss is a bit too high, my initial feeling is 30. But on the 11th, when Interwetten changed the loss, the single 3 of this game was ready. why? Let's take a look at the adjustment of interwetten, the initial loss is 1.35 4.0 7.0, and the adjustment on the 11th is 1.35 4.20 7.50. Under the condition that the win and loss remain unchanged, the equal and negative losses have been increased, which means that he has increased the return rate of this game. As mentioned earlier, this is a company that takes risk control as its first goal. When he increases the return rate, it basically shows that it is very sure of this game.
  10. 10
    Let's look at another example, also in issue 05046, Malaga VS Real Madrid. Interwetten adjusted the initial loss of 3.6 3.1 1.85 to 3.8 3.2 1.85. In the same way, to improve the overall return rate, Real Madrid basically won. Interwetten, because of his risk strategy, decided that he could not increase the risk by unreasonably increasing the return rate. Once a similar situation arises, everyone must know what to choose.

     

    It should be noted that, first, it must be an overall increase in the return rate. If in the above-mentioned changes in odds, the low odds are increased while the medium and high odds are reduced, then the overall return rate will be balanced and not increased, then such a reference The effect will be lost; secondly, avoid improvising and do not analyze the specific situation.
  11. 11
    Interwetten has no reference value in most occasions. If you have paid attention, you will find that he often pays a little higher for the low than other mainstreams, and a lower for the high. This is also due to the company's risk. Determined by the control strategy, preventing the risks brought by unpopular high losses is their consistent approach. So, don't be surprised when we see William see that the main loss is 9.0 and the interwetten is only 7.0 or even 6.5, this is the normal odds system of the interwetten, don't think that the interwetten thinks that the unpopular will be out. Then, on the other hand, we can also see that once William offers a high odds of 9.0 and Interwetten also offers odds of 9.0 or even 9.5, we can conclude that there is no 0 in this game. In the same way, when other majors offer odds of 1.25, the interwetten must be 1.27 or 1.30 or even 1.35, which is very normal. And once the interwetten also opens 1.25 or even lower, the probability of the main victory is too great too great. The above is the meaning of the interwetten odds system to us. To sum up, the odds of this company in most of the games have no reference significance, but once it is abnormal, the success rate exceeds 90%.
  12. 12
    So, what is the reference for the European average odds to us? This is mainly compared with other mainstream companies. For example, Manchester United VS Everton, Willian odds 1.28 4.0 10.0, and the European average odds 1.27 4.43 9.8, which is not normal. As a mainstream company, especially SNAI for Serie A and William for the Premier League, the odds for strong teams are often slightly lower than other mainstream companies, and even lower than the European flat odds. This is a normal situation. For example, in this odds, under normal circumstances, William should pay less than Ou Ping for the main win and peace, and higher than Ou Ping for the main loss, but it is obviously not the case. This shows that Willian may not be very optimistic about Manchester United, and we have to be very careful about such games. Once again, William's compensation for the Premier League, SNAI for Serie A, and traditional strong teams will be slightly lower than other mainstream companies, and lower than the average compensation. This is a normal situation. If not, we need to be vigilant and pay attention. Of course, this does not mean that it will be cold, but at least it tells us that this game is not as stable as we imagined.

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